Operationalizing the drought risk in spatial planning /

Abstract

Drought ranks first among all-natural disasters caused primarily by human activity, affecting nearly all climate zones (Mishra & Singh, 2010). Drought, unlike earthquakes, floods, and cyclones, is a slow process with long-term consequences (Samra, 2004). Countries across the globe have developed numerous frameworks and policies for drought management (UNICEF, 2016). In India, on average, based on vulnerability studies, Drought affects 28% of the geographical land area (Samra, 2004). Due to its cost-effectiveness, risk-sensitive land use planning has gained a lot of traction among various disaster risk reduction and management approaches in recent years (Sudmeier-Rieux et al., 2015). Drought risks are exacerbated by unplanned growth in areas ranging from high to low risk. Land-use planning is now regarded as one of the best practices at the heart of natural disaster risk management, with the potential to enhance the security and resilience of those affected (Roy & Ferland, 2014). There are close links between the drought-land nexus and human land-use decisions, which influence water availability and decide ecosystem and human drought resilience (UNCCD, 2019). However, the drought-prone regions (both urban and rural areas) in India have still not gained much attention towards risk-sensitive planning but following the conventional approaches in planning such challenging regions. Therefore, there is a need for operationalizing the drought risk into spatial planning for the drought-prone regions. In this background, this research intended to understand the relationship between drought risk and spatial planning. This study was conducted through empirical research, focusing on developing a watershed-based framework for operationalizing drought risk in spatial planning for a drought-prone region. For this, a well-organized literature review was conducted using an exploratory and comparative study to synthesize and understand how the concept of drought risk is being addressed using various approaches and frameworks considering multiple climatic zones, scale, type of Drought, dimensions of drought risk, type of risk assessment, etc. Moreover, the relevant indicators for the two levels of analysis were identified based on the outcome of the literature review. This research comprised two levels of analysis; the first was drought severity assessment at catchment (regional) scale. The Upper Bhima Catchment was the selected study area based on the meteorological Drought experienced by the catchment over the years. The severity analysis at the catchment scale was performed based on the identified indicators such as NDVI, LULC, slope, geomorphology, etc. (prioritized and ranked based on results of Analytic Hierarchy Process) for identifying a taluka having a varied range of drought severity. A delineated micro-watershed was selected in the taluka having severe to moderate drought severity for the second level of analysis, i.e., drought risk analysis (micro-watershed scale). The selected micro-watershed comprised a cluster of 21 villages and a census town. The farmers' perception survey was conducted using the simple random sampling technique in all these villages and a census town to gather information on the identified indicators based on the outcome of literature review for the drought risk assessment and the challenges faced due to the onset of drought events over the years from the local people. Drought risk has three dimensions, i.e., Hazard, Exposure and Vulnerability, which were analyzed individually and overlayed in ArcGIS software using weighted overlay tool to get the resultant drought risk zones at micro-watershed scale. The indicators for the first dimension, Hazard, were VCI, TCI and SPI; for the second dimension, Exposure, the indicators were Cropland and People; and for the third dimension, Vulnerability, indicators were population density, avg. annual income, decline in groundwater levels, etc. Due to time restriction, frequent field visits for stakeholders' interviews, lack of manpower and limited sample size, the study area was restricted to a select drought-prone micro-watershed. Finally, future zoning (conservation, no development zone, etc.) and drought risk mitigating strategies were proposed depending upon the outcomes of the drought risk assessment. The study was concluded by developing a conceptual framework where the emphasis was on developing a watershed-based framework for operationalizing drought risk in spatial planning with two-level integration: catchment scale analysis in the Regional Plan (RP) and micro-watershed level analysis in the Integrated Cluster Action Plan (ICAP). This research shall find efficient ways to minimize the drought risk in the semi-arid tropics with its integration in spatial planning, increasing drought resiliency in an area. This research may also provide a guideline for planners and decision-makers (policymakers) to integrate drought risks using this assessment in the rural spatial planning process and take essential mitigation measures to address the risk accordingly, considering the participatory (community-led) approach. Therefore, the proposed watershed-based framework in this research may be replicated in other drought-prone micro-watersheds in the semi-arid tropics with necessary alterations considering the perspective of local people and different type of hazard scenarios (if any), which will be the paragon for spatial planning supporting pathways towards more Drought resilient societies. Keywords: Drought; Drought risk; Spatial planning; Hazard; Exposure; Vulnerability; Zoning; Watershed-based framework