Impact of climate change on the spatial and socio-economic dynamics of sundarbans

Abstract

The Sundarbans is the world’s largest contiguous mangrove forest and a UNESCO World Heritage site (UNESCO, 2020; IPCC, 2022). Its mangroves provide critical ecosystem services and serve as a natural barrier against cyclones and other extreme weather events for millions in Bangladesh and India. However, these low-lying delta islands face accelerating climate threats: rising seas, intense cyclones, and saltwater intrusion are fragmenting the landscape and harming local communities (Hazra et al., 2020; IPCC, 2022). The socio-economic fallout is stark. Declining farm and fishery yields have driven many residents to migrate for work. Villagers often relocate to nearby cities such as Kolkata or even across state borders. Affected communities increasingly view migration as a proactive adaptation strategy (Das & Hazra, 2020), but migrants typically arrive in new areas with few resources. This study highlights acute inequalities: relatively wealthier households can invest in coping measures, whereas the poorest (often the most exposed) cannot adapt and are forced to relocate. This study employs a mixed-methods approach. GIS-based spatial analysis of long-term satellite imagery for land cover change detection and various geo-physical parameters to create a climate change exposure map, while household surveys and interviews document livelihood impacts, people’s perception/behaviours, migration flows, and adaptation practices. Key findings underscore severe climate impacts: sustained coastal land loss and severe change in land cover that are already undermining ecosystems and livelihoods, driving rising out-migration, and exposing stark adaptive-capacity gaps. The study also examines the socio-economic intricacies of the area, highlighting the ability of climate stressors to deepen poverty, induce population displacement, and interfere with traditional livelihoods like fishing and agriculture. These outcomes emphasize the urgency of climate-smart planning, including mangrove restoration, resilient infrastructure, diversified livelihoods, and planned relocation. The dissertation proposes an integrated, community-led adaptation model emphasizing the need for ecosystem recovery, adaptive infrastructure, livelihood diversification, and governance decentralization. This research aims to inform sustainable planning and policy interventions that conserve biodiversity and human welfare in the Sundarbans by integrating human and environmental aspects. KEYWORDS: Climate Change, Exposure, Sundarbans Delta, LULC Dynamics, Livelihood, Migration