Climatic and non- climatic adaptive agricultural practices: case study of Ujjain district

Abstract

As India’s economic backbone is constituted by agriculture, it has been estimated that agriculture alone can lift the estimated 641 million people out of poverty in Asia-Pacific region and that a 1% increase in agricultural productivity would lead to a 0.37% drop in poverty in the Asia-Pacific region (UNESCAP, 2015) In a country where agriculture directly employs about 60 percent of the population- and where there are already over 1.14 billion mouths to feed- it’s time to give agriculture some special treatment. Although, many interventions were taken to prevent rural to urban migration via policies and schemes to ensure good price for crops, insurance for crop failure, loans with minimum or no interest rates even many loans were cleared by the government. But, the conditions are getting worsen day by day. So, Aim of this study is to study the significance of climatic and non-climatic factors influencing the agricultural practices and to propose strategies to surmount the effects of these factors. In order to achieve the above-mentioned aim, two climatic parameters i.e. Rainfall and Temperature. Along with, Two non-climatic parameters i.e. socioeconomy and soil characteristics were taken into consideration based on the severity of impact it makes/ can make on cropping practices. Temporal changes in identified climate components were analysed and at the meantime, the present soil nutrients status, soil characteristics including geomorphology and physical components along with socio-economic conditions of cultivators and farmers were analysed separately in order to get the true picture of the present situation of agriculture. The outcome of a temporal study of various climatic and non-climatic parameters are very alarming. Shift from barren land to agricultural land use along with build-up. But, what will happen when there will be no barren land in the region? In terms of main crops, Soybean is predominant crop practised almost everywhere within district followed by Wheat and Gram. Although, the productivity and yield of Soybean on papers have shown increasing trend but, the cases of farmers suicide is constant. The dependency of agriculture sector on climate is relatively high in case of Ujjain district, as full Kharif season crops are rainfed in nature. While most of Rabi season crops are irrigation based mainly on underground water (88% of total irrigated area) making both Kharif and Rabi vulnerable to climate change if it happens in Ujjain. Since the micro climate of the region has changed a lot since 1900. According to the observed values, there is a rise of Mean Minimum Temperature of Ujjain by One degree celsius. While, the Mean Maximum Temperature of Ujjain has increased by above One degree celsius. Which can basically noticed from early 1970’s. At the meantime, Total amount of rainfall has reduced by 40mm per year and Number of rain days has reduced by almost half a day. In order to understand the severity of climate change in coming future, a model named IPSL-CM5A-MR developed by CIAT, Research wing of NASA and IPCC for Agriculture is considered because of its accuracy and factors that are considered to predict it. Along with that, Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP) 8.5 has been considered. Which is, the worst case scenario for climate change. According to the climate prediction model, Mean Minimum Temperature will rise by Five degree celsius by the end of this century. While mean maximum temperature will rise by Four degree Celsius by the end of this century. And at the meantime, there will be an increment in the total amount of rainfall by 250mm while total number of rain days will reduce by Three days per year. Due to the adverse impact of climate change on soil and agricultural productivity and especially yield, farmers were recommended with cropping cycles for twotime frames i.e. Short-term based on 2020 scenario and Medium-term based on 2050 scenario. The approach adopted for such interventions are Integrated approach of mixed farming and Intercropping considering soil type, soil nutrients status, soil pH, climatic conditions predicted and crops inter-dependency. Suggested interventions were supported with many present Schemes and Policies at various levels i.e. International, National and State. Through these schemes and policies, these suggested interventions can be adapted in short-term. While, medium-term interventions are supported with legislative framework to incorporate suggestions at various levels i.e. Central, State and Local.