Planning for electric mobility using electric two-wheelers: a case of Pune city

Abstract

Globally, electric vehicles have already been accepted as the future of road transportation considering the advent of modern technology and the substantial benefits it presents. More importantly, the Indian Government also has plans for giving thrust to the adoption of electric vehicle adoption in Indian road transportation, with its ambitious National Electric Mobility Mission Plan (NEMMP) 2020 by the Ministry of Heavy Industries and Public Enterprises, which targets to achieve 6-7 million sales of hybrid and electric vehicles in the country year on year from 2020 onwards. An incentivisation scheme has also been launched under NEMM called the Faster Adoption and Manufacturing of (Hybrid &) Electric Vehicles (FAME India), which allocates an initial outlay of 75 crores to push early adoption and market creation of both hybrid and electric technologies. But why does the Indian road transportation need a paradigm shift from Internal Combustion Engines (ICEs) to Electric Vehicles (EVs)? The two issues related to ICEs which daunt India today are (1) Dependence on Fuel imports (2) Pollution due to Transport. Currently, India is the 3rd largest importer of crude oil in the world. In the FY 17-18 the imported fuel for transportation was ¼th of the GDP for the year. In 2015, India was the 4th largest emitter of CO2 responsible for 2.5 Kt of CO2 emissions by volume, and by 2040, the emissions are projected to be 25% of the global emissions, making India the 3rd largest in terms of volume of CO2 emissions. Compared to an ICE, an EV emits only two thirds of the CO2. In India two-wheeler vehicles are majorly seen on roads more compared to fourwheeler vehicles as 2W are more time and fuel efficient and ICE driven and, they are the best options for the first and last mile connectivity on the congested Indian roads. The sale of two-wheelers in FY17 was representing approximately 80% of the total automotive sales. In addition, a commercial e-2W provide more Vehicle Utilization, greater Price Differential (between an e-2W and an ICE-2W), lesser cost of ownership (than an ICE 2W, approximately 22% less over a period of 5 years) and is more attractive for an Original Equipment Manufacturer (OEM) investment than a private e- v 2W, an e-4W and even e-Buses. Based on above-mentioned reasons, e-2W or particularly commercial e-2W is being considered to induce EV adoption in Pune City. The aim of the study is to assess the potential for introducing electric two-wheeler (e- 2W) in general and as shared service. The study shall also cover the identification of infrastructure and operational requirements for operating the feeder system. The study is divided under four objectives; understanding the market for e-2W, assessing potential of e-2W adoption as a new mode, assessing potential for adoption of e-2W as a shared service (possibly as metro feeders) and finally recommending a strategy for development of support infrastructure. The choice of Pune City for the study is based on the incompetence of the Public Transit (PT) system prevalent in the city, which is responsible of 67% PT users to shift to two-wheeler (2W). Pune has also been known as the Bicycle city of India, however after a failed Bicycle Implementation Plan in 1981, commuters have chosen 2W over the poor ecosystem for cycling. An extensive literature review on Government policies at both the National as well as Maharashtra State level is done to understand the GoI thrust for EV adoption, and to study land use, transport network and future metro routes. A primary survey is conducted to identify the facilitators and barriers to e-2W adoption using Structured Open-ended surveys and Stated Preference (SP) Surveys. The open-ended surveys shall constitute the first part of the primary survey and SP Surveys follow them. The primary survey targets two groups: the manufacturers and the general commuters. The Consumer Study Survey is analysed to give Demographic Details of commuters, Travel Mode and Pattern, EV Awareness, Preference to use EV and Preference to use EV rental. The survey also included a list of EV attributes which were to be ranked by the commuters. SP survey results were analysed to give preference of commuters for EV rental with respect to three levels of certain attribute values, and choice was modelled using Binomial Logic Model. Finally, identification of location and capacity of docking stations and a tentative operational and financial strategy were identified.