Assessing climate change out migration: the case of Damoh district in M.P. Bundelkhand region

Abstract

Among many inescapable consequences of climate change, its impact on human migration is a growing global reality. IPCC fourth assessment report has confirmed that climate change will displace millions of people around the globe and it is likely to adversely and disproportionately impact the poor and vulnerable population. Projections forecast that by the year 2050, one in every forty five person will be a climate migrant. There is increased recognition that research on climate change’s impact on migration is underexplored though the gravity of climate factors as push factor is increasing. Tendency and pattern of migration in response to climate change are influenced by number of factors, making it a household survival strategy. Applying a climate change perspective to migration may lead to a more accurate understanding of the process and will help to address the vulnerabilities, experiences, and needs of climate migrants. Bundelkhand Region has become a synonym with climate change and brewing outmigration due to water shortages amidst erratic rainfall. This study explores various aspects of climate change and subsequent migration and presents results from five villages in Damoh district of Bundelkhand region. The study aims at assessing the climate change vulnerability and migration in the identified climate out migration hotspot in the district by - i) identifying the factors which cause migration that can be attributed to climate out-migration, ii) appraising the identified factors for Damoh district, iii) assessing migration that involve climate change factors in shaping migration decisions and iv) reviewing on going government interventions to address the issue. In an attempt to achieve the above objectives, first the study appraises various factors such as change in number of rainy days, change in amount of rainfall and unusual rainfall events, decrease in net sown area, declining crop yields and livestock which undermine rural livelihood and stimulate climate migration for the Damoh district. The data for these parameters was obtained for twenty five years from 1990 to 2015 from M.P Agriculture Statistics. Further to assess the influence of these parameters on migration in absence of migration data, the study uses primary data, collected at household level through survey and focused group discussions through quantitative and qualitative questionnaire covering seventy nine households within five villages (four intervention and one control), namely Sanga, Imlidol, Sahajpur, Pandajhir and Kumahri in Tendukheda Tehsil, identified through index based approach and purposive identification upon stakeholder discussion. The villages have same socio-economic characteristics except that Kumahri (control village) has ninety percent irrigated area under canal irrigation and relatively more water security over intervention villages. The control village was identified for a comparative Assessing Climate Out Migration- The Case of Damoh District in M.P Bundelkhand iv assessment of migrants and reason for migration between intervention and control group. The study uses descriptive statistics and content analysis to analyse the primary data collected from survey. The number of rainy days in the district have reduced from fifty six to just forty three in the past twenty five years. There have been five years during 2005 to 2015 with rainfall with less than seventy percent of normal as compared to none during 1990 to 2005 and two with rainfall more than one hundred thirty percent of the normal. The net sown area has reduced from cent percent of the total area under agriculture to seventy six percent, total crop yield of major crops has decreased by twenty three percent and the total livestock has declined by thirty eight percent from 2000-01 to 2015-16. Findings from household level survey suggest that the migration has increased approximately nine times in the intervention villages in past one decade. Water scarcity is the main driver of long term and short term migration followed by low income and lack of job opportunities. Sixty one percent households working as cultivators and fifty four percent as agricultural labourers migrate because of water scarcity. Whereas in control village, lack of job drives forty percent of the migration. Eighty percent of migration is interstate. Migrants work as construction labourer in destination areas. Understanding of the social impacts of such migration revealed that health and education are still a farfetched dream as twenty six percent of households reported withdrawing their children from schools due to migration. Towards the end, the study reviews various government interventions and schemes aimed at addressing the identified issue of water scarcity by water resource augmentation through surface and ground water recharge structures. As the projected impacts of climate change will deepen, it will account for the bulk of migratory movements in coming decades, from rural to urban areas. Often government and planners tend to underestimate migration, and thus ignore climate migration altogether. Our cities are lacking the carrying capacity to absorb the rising population and the increasing in-migration due to climate drivers in combination with socio-economic drivers from rural areas will further aggravate the vulnerabilities. Often climate migrants face countless challenges and risks at origin and destination places. Explicit understanding of climate migration adds importance to our understanding of the ways which shapes rural lives and household wellbeing in the context of climate migration. There is need to devise policies and strategies to prevent, at the same time provide services which are inclusive of these migrants at all stages of climate migration life cycle.