Abstract:
Mangroves are irreplaceable coastal buffers that trap carbon, blunt storm surges, and sustain fisheries, yet Kerala’s cover has plummeted—from roughly 700 km² a century ago to scattered fragments—under pressures of land reclamation, pollution, and weak governance. Centering on Munroe Island in Kollam district, where households depend on mangroves for fishing, tourism, and aquaculture, this thesis asks how governance quality and community action converge with on-the-ground Environmental change to determine restoration success. A mixed-methods design links island-scale ethnography to state-wide spatial analysis. Stratified-random surveys, key-informant interviews, and field observations of 100 residents across thirteen wards capture livelihoods, policy awareness, and perceptions of mangrove decline. These site-level data are embedded in a broader GIS screening of Kannur, Ernakulam, and Kollam districts that flagged Munroe Island as the most representative restoration hotspot. The full data set feeds a Bayesian Network constructed in GeNIE, enabling causal mapping, “what-if” policy scenarios, and sensitivity tests across governance, behaviour, and ecological nodes. Results isolate the variables that most strongly hinder or advance recovery: ambiguous land tenure, chronic enforcement gaps, and eroding trust in institutions on the one hand; place-based knowledge, livelihood incentives, and participatory ward committees on the other. Scenario analysis shows that coupling tighter CRZ enforcement with revenue-sharing eco-tourism schemes and community-led planting can raise the probability of Mangrove Conservation from 41 % to 62 % within a decade. On that evidence, the thesis proposes a scalable governance package: clarify tenure, empower local committees, braid traditional stewardship into formal plans, and link monitoring incentives to tourism income. Implemented on Munroe Island, these measures promise not only healthier mangrove stands and more resilient livelihoods but also a replicable model for climate-vulnerable coasts across India.
